Out with the old, in with the new: My take on 2021 and 2022 - Aidan McClean
Adaptation is the key to survival! 2021 was another tumultuous year. Dominated by Covid variants and climate-induced disasters but also hope. Reflecting on 2021, my key takeaways from the year behind us and predictions for 2022…
COVID19 & THE ECONOMY
Having started at the end of 2019, Covid is still very much with us at the end of 2021. This awful pandemic, that has claimed so many lives worldwide, has also inspired incredible human ingenuity and resourcefulness. In an unprecedently short time we created effective vaccines and deployed them to billions of people across the globe. Millions of lives have undoubtedly been saved by this amazing international effort. The vaccination achievement truly shows how humans, when under pressure, can achieve great things and fast.
The Covid story is far from over, but we have turned the corner. It will be with us forever, but I predict by the end of 2022 it will be a background issue.
Covid also produced some worrying and bizarre human behaviour where the internet-spread misinformation, conspiracy theories and noise rather than fact prevailed. Like the discussion around climate change, some people are hyper susceptible to these falsehoods, spread by vested interests, cult-like conspiracy groups and simply stupid people choosing the easiest answer rather than the correct one.
Challenge-based on facts is welcome, challenge based on insanity is not. As herd immunity increases, variants become weaker, and vaccinations and boosters become more widespread Covid will fade away in 2022.
From an economic standpoint, the exuberant stimulus packages injected by major economies to cushion the damage from Covid, combined with an energy crunch appears to have ‘over warmed’ some economies. This warming has ignited inflation levels not seen since the 1980s.
For most of this current generation, rapidly rising prices and interest rates are something new. Let’s hope the current levels of personal indebtedness can withstand shock interest rates. I am old enough to remember when interest rates hit 15%, a level completely inconceivable to anyone born this century! Governments will need to keep a close eye on things in 2022 if we are to avoid the level of debt defaults and economic turmoil seen with unsustainable debt just a decade ago.
UNNATURAL DISASTERS
In 2021 we witnessed geographically independent, yet connected, ‘natural disasters’. Greek and Californian wildfires, European flooding and record temperatures in far north Canadian towns all point to human-induced climate change. We finished the year with temperatures 28 degrees Celsius higher than the seasonal norm in parts of Greenland. COP26 took place in Glasgow to much fanfare, promise and hope. Despite the hype, unfortunately, more talk than action was the outcome. Sure, governments made new pledges to bring forward carbon reduction targets to meet the objective of no more than a 1.5-degree global average temperature increase above pre-industrial levels, but the reality is there is little hope of achieving this, with some models predicting double this increase. 2022 will unfortunately likely see new global temperature records set and more misery from climate change-induced unnatural disasters.
Unlike the covid vaccination effort and severe forced lockdowns, the world isn’t yet ready to take the tough and necessary decisions. Pulling the band-aid off slowly isn’t going to save us from global warming.
There is hope, however, as climate change scepticism is beginning to melt away like our ice caps. More and more are now demanding action as the reality of our climate disaster hits closer to home. Large organizations are also now trying to accelerate their ESG goals. Although some of this is greenwashing, it is largely a step in the right direction. We have also seen a ‘green-rush’ towards ESG investing, with billions more poured into the potential for climate change capitalism. All of this bodes well towards accelerating our efforts to save our planet. I think 2022 will be a pivotal year for us, with more and more racing towards supporting climate solutions with fewer and fewer hanging onto the ways of the past.
ELECTRIC REVOLUTION
Tesla's Elon Musk is now the richest man on the planet, the richest man ever to have lived. Why? It's not because he's produced millions of cars, it's because he has completely turned the automotive industry on its head.
What was laughed at just ten years ago, by the world's major automotive brands, is now the benchmark that they are all trying to match. 2021 witnessed a slew of major automotive brands declaring their future is now electric. From Volkswagen and General Motors to even the electric laggard Toyota declaring an electric future towards the end of 2021.
The electric revolution accelerated massively in 2021 and is now on an unstoppable path. If you have any doubts that you are driving the last days of your diesel or petrol car, just look around at the range of new electric models coming onstream in 2022. I predict that 2022 would probably be your last year to buy a fossil fuel car. Assuming you keep your car for an average of three-five years your next car is almost certainly 100% electric. Don't wait, go electric now, it works!
Governments need to wise up and support the electric take up more aggressively and push the rollout of charging infrastructure faster. Ending fossil fuel subsidies and diverting those resources to clean technology is a must now. Ending support for hybrid electric vehicles, which are slowing the transition to full electric and having near-zero climate benefit, needs to also take place in ‘22.
The future of the electric car revolution is bright, it is the one positive development that has shown great momentum towards supporting our climate ambitions. Although not the full answer, it is also leading to a whole world of spin-offs in clean energy production and energy storage, all of which can help us save our climate and planet. I believe 2022 will be the last year of any remaining scepticism about the electric car revolution.
