Five Predictions for the Electric Vehicle Industry in 2023
As the electric vehicle market continues gaining momentum, and the 2030 ban on the production of new combustion engine cars in the UK rapidly approaches, what can we expect to see happen in the EV market over the next twelve months?
2022 saw some important milestones passed for electric vehicles – and each one demonstrates a market picking up pace exponentially. As more people purchase them, the technology and supply chains will improve, making them more affordable and advanced for future consumers.
Today, there are an estimated 620,000 pure electric, non-hybrid cars on the road in the UK, with 224,919 new ones sold in 2022 - a 15.1 per cent share of the UK’s new car market – according to data from Hey Car. November 2022 saw 35.2 per cent more electric cars registered in the UK than the same month last year.
This is clearly a market on the rise – but what will this mean for 2023?
#1 More EVs, more chargers, happier customers
Electric vehicle adoption will continue to accelerate in 2023, and more people will buy EVs. According to the latest data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT), we expect to see 1.8 million EVs on British roads, and 26.7 per cent of new car registrations being electric by 2023. EV usage and ownership will snowball as drivers see more EVs on the road and as more consumers and businesses begin to grasp the concept of an electric car being a practical, sensible, and sustainable alternative.
However, electric vehicles do not exist in a vacuum; they rely on a charging infrastructure – both in private residences and on the road. As EV ownership increases, so will the number of chargers available to them.
The UK government has already pledged £1.6bn of investment through its Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Strategy, which promises 300,000 chargers on public roads by 2030 – more than five times the current number of petrol and diesel pumps. By 2023 each motorway service stations will have at least six rapid chargers, all 150kw or above, according to Electrifying.com.
Where public investment and sound policy goes, private capital will follow. In August 2022, BP promised an investment of £1bn over the next ten years to expand rollout of its fast-chargers. More electric cars mean more chargers, and more chargers means that range-anxiety will become far less of a perceived problem and that more people are happy to drive electric.
#2 More private investment from legacy car manufacturers
For some time, legacy car manufacturers have been building their own EVs, and now some of the fastest or most luxurious electric cars on the market aren’t Tesla or Polestar, but Audis and Porsches. And while Teslas are still the most popular electric car on the roads today, the company’s dominance will continue to erode in 2023 as a number of more affordable EV models from competing brands enter the market.
We are starting to see the same with charging infrastructure, particularly in the US, with legacy manufacturers rolling out chargers to match their various net zero pledges. For example, CNN recently reported that General Motors has recently promised to install 40,000 electric chargers throughout rural America, in line with the company’s promise to be an electric only manufacturer by 2035.
This can only be a good thing – as long as manufacturers focus on ensuring that chargers are as accessible to as many different cars and payment methods as possible.
#3 Wait times for new EVs will come down
The last few years has seen wait times for the delivery of a new EV to a consumer’s door lengthen considerably. Some models closed their 2023 order books in 2022 – and in the UK there is a wait time of up to 18 months for some models, according to The Daily Telegraph.
Such long waiting times are the result of a raft of supply chain issues, including COVID-19 and China’s no-COVID policy, both of which impacted EV manufacturers and microchip production. As 2023 approaches, waiting times for new EVs are already falling and this situation will continue to improve as the supply chain issues and semiconductor shortages ease.
However, this is not to say supply will be back to normal anytime soon. A post-pandemic hangover, marked by increasing levels of inflation and still-volatile supply chains will continue to disrupt all industries. Which is why renting, instead of buying, a new premium EV may still be your best option for driving electric in 2023.
#4 Charging and battery technology will improve
The rapid and exponential improvement of EV technology will continue in 2023. New innovations and discoveries in batteries and chargers will continue to make the electric revolution more practical and more affordable for mainstream consumers.
More specifically, we can expect to see chargers get faster, and these fast chargers become cheaper and more common to install. The fastest charger is currently Tesla’s 250 KwH charger – which can take a Tesla from 10 per cent to 80 per cent in 25 minutes.
For batteries, solid state is the future – and one that isn’t too far from a reality. Solid state batteries have two to ten times the energy density as standard EV batteries such as lithium-ion, and so will reduce weight and increase range, as well as be faster to charge and keep capacity longer.
#5 Fleets will go electric
For private passenger vehicles, the electric revolution is already well underway. For business fleets, such as couriers, rental fleets and delivery vehicles, the progress isn’t so clear-cut. This will change considerably in 2023 as businesses look to limit unnecessary carbon emissions from their operations as they approach various net zero pledges; whether these be self-declared, or government mandated.
Here, the fleet management software used to schedule operations will be as important as the new vehicles. Effective software can optimise the charging schedule of each vehicle’s battery, ensuring each battery has enough to charge to complete its required tasks, considering battery health, energy costs, the number of chargers in operation, and other factors, hence minimising downtime.
